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Hemos alcanzado el «pico de pastos» para el ganado

Después de todo, la historia de las vacas y el medio ambiente puede no ser del todo malas noticias. Los impactos descomunales de los animales se han vuelto más prominentes en las conversaciones ambientales últimamente y por una buena razón. La carne de res y los productos lácteos son responsables de más emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero que cualquier otra fuente de alimentos, en gran parte debido al metano de la digestión del ganado, las emisiones del estiércol y la conversión de bosques ricos en carbono en pastos y tierras de cultivo para alimentación animal.

Si bien el desarrollo de sustitutos de la carne y los lácteos, como la carne de origen vegetal, está ayudando a cambiar las dietas en los países ricos, el mundo sigue consumiendo más carne y leche cada año. A medida que crecen las economías emergentes, podemos esperar que su consumo de carne de res siga el mismo ritmo. Si bien este aumento indica que más personas pueden permitirse dietas más ricas y variadas, ofrece perspectivas sombrías para el clima. Pero también hay una historia positiva, una que se subestima y ofrece la esperanza de que se pueda reducir el impacto de la ganadería: la historia de los pastos máximos.

En los últimos 20 años, ha ocurrido algo notable, algo que pocos predijeron: después de varios siglos de expansión, el área global de pastos ha comenzado a reducirse. Según los datos más recientes de las Naciones Unidas, hay 140 millones de hectáreas menos de pastos que en el año 2000, un área aproximadamente del tamaño de Perú. Debido a que los pastos son uno de los mayores impulsores de la deforestación en muchas regiones, y de la pérdida de hábitat y las emisiones de carbono que siguen, esta es una buena noticia para el medio ambiente.

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Posiblemente, el hecho más sorprendente sobre el pico de pasto es lo extendido que está. Si bien el área de pastos ha disminuido más dramáticamente en Australia, se ha contraído o se ha mantenido igual en aproximadamente dos tercios de todos los países desde 2000.

Esta tendencia positiva tiene una explicación sorprendentemente simple: el aumento de la productividad de los pastos y la ganadería. Gracias a los esfuerzos modernos de reproducción y prácticas más eficientes en el uso de los recursos, el mundo está produciendo una mayor cantidad de carne y leche que nunca, incluso cuando el área de pastos se ha reducido. La producción mundial promedio de carne de res por vaca, por ejemplo, ha crecido alrededor de un 30 por ciento desde 1961, y los administradores de tierras en todos los continentes han comenzado a cultivar pastos específicos para que coma el ganado que pueden aumentar la producción varias veces.

De manera análoga a la revolución verde del siglo XX que trajo niveles sin precedentes de productividad agrícola, es justo decir que el mundo ha experimentado una “revolución ganadera”, pero no todo el mundo. En particular, la productividad sigue siendo baja en el África subsahariana, donde el sobrepastoreo generalizado degrada la calidad de las tierras de pastoreo. El rápido crecimiento demográfico y económico de la región, combinado con una productividad persistentemente baja, podría augurar una importante reexpansión de los pastos a nivel mundial.

En gran medida, entonces, el futuro de los pastos globales, ya sea que continúe contrayéndose o expandiéndose una vez más, depende de si la revolución ganadera llega al África subsahariana. Como ha ocurrido en otros lugares, en otros lugares, una revolución de este tipo en toda la región requerirá el cultivo de pastos y cultivos más productivos para el ganado, la mejora de los programas de cría y el suministro de animales con un refugio adecuado y atención veterinaria. Facilitar esta transición dependerá de las acciones de los gobiernos para ayudar a los productores a superar las barreras a la adopción de nuevas prácticas. Como se demostró en Brasil, por ejemplo, los gobiernos pueden mejorar la productividad brindando asistencia técnica y crédito financiero a los productores.

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Sin embargo, los gobiernos también deben tomar medidas para garantizar que una mayor productividad no resulte contraproducente y resulte en que los ganaderos amplíen sus operaciones. Los esfuerzos que han tenido éxito incluyen monitorear de cerca los bosques e imponer multas por deforestación, otorgar crédito financiero cuando los productores cumplen con las regulaciones ambientales y crear áreas protegidas donde la agricultura está prohibida. Además, para ser socialmente equitativa, la transición hacia la intensificación debe respetar el papel integral del ganado en la vida, los medios de subsistencia y las culturas de las comunidades locales, esforzándose siempre por mejorar el bienestar animal.

No sabemos adónde irá la demanda de carne y productos lácteos este siglo. Si bien la demanda continúa su aumento aparentemente inexorable, los cambios en la dieta y las alternativas a la carne y la leche podrían sorprendernos y doblar la curva hacia abajo. Pero no importa la cantidad de producción ganadera que veamos este siglo, aumentar drásticamente la productividad en gran parte del mundo es clave para minimizar la huella del ganado. Los pastos pico muestran que poder reducir esa huella incluso mientras se satisface la creciente demanda. El desafío para las próximas décadas es si voluntad desarrollar iniciativas gubernamentales y del sector privado para continuar con esta tendencia.

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